The climate change danger signals
According to Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego the ocean falls ill. For more than 100 years, fisheries around the world have been mismanaged due to an inaccurate evaluation of the true state of marine ecosystems. Lack of a full historical perspective, particularly the extent of impacts from overfishing in the oceans, has led to this incomplete picture. Jeremy Jackson, a professor at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, contends that understanding the stark magnitude of historical overfishing is the first step in developing scientifically rigorous and bold strategies for the restoration and sustainable development of the oceans. In a symposium he organized for the 2002 American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Boston, Jackson will stress the importance that recent groundbreaking research bears upon strategies for protecting sea life and restoring their richness.
The danger signals are everywhere, some related to climate change and greenhouse gases and others not:
Every eight months, 11 million gallons of oil run off the nation’s roads and driveways into waters that eventually reach the sea, the Pew Oceans Commission said in 2003. That’s the equivalent of an Exxon Valdez-size oil spill.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the oceans have absorbed 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide. They’re now absorbing about 22 million tons of carbon dioxide a day. As that happens, the oceans become more acidic, threatening the marine food chain. The acidity could eat away the shells of such animals as the petropod, a nearly microscopic snail with a calcium carbonate covering that’s eaten by krill, salmon and whales.
•More than 60 percent of the nation’s coastal rivers and bays are moderately to severely degraded by nutrient runoff from products such as fertilizer, creating algae blooms that affect the kelp beds and grasses that are nurseries for many species of fish.
Seruous Warning
Is 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile really serious warning for USA? Everyone has to think about. One of the really “Big Ones” to shake the United States was a magnitude-9.0 earthquake along the Pacific Northwest coast more than 300 years ago, before the arrival of huge numbers of people and development, that sent a catastrophic tsunami to Japan. According to Professor Bill McGuire of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre there are subduction zones all around the world, but mainly they occur around the rim of the Pacific. The so-called Ring of Fire. Most of the world’s big, really destructive earthquakes occur here. A subduction zone is where a continental plate is sliding below an adjoining plate causing a build-up of friction. When this friction builds to a critical point, the plate breaks free of the friction and slips. This slippage causes a mega-thrust earthquake.
As most mega-thrust earthquakes occur near, or below, the sea the huge energy release causes a tsunami. A tsunami is different from a normal wave, in that with a normal wave only the surface water is moving, with a tidal wave the whole water column is moving. Millions of tons of water! The combination of massive earthquakes and tsunamis makes subduction zones a deadly geological hazard. So, it should have been a cause for some concern that the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 600 mile long fault, lies right off the Pacific north-west coast. The strange thing was, that Cascadia didn’t seem to be a danger at all.
For years, scientists have been studying seismic activity along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. They found that, unlike other subduction zones, it was virtually silent. If the adjoining plates were sliding smoothly then no friction would build and no earthquakes would occur. This appears to be backed up by 200 years of records, for as long as Europeans have lived here, there is no record of earthquakes from Cascadia.
• The state of Oregon last month announced 13 school buildings and 11 emergency management facilities would be retrofitted to withstand earthquakes. More than 1,000 such buildings are at high or very high risk of collapse during an earthquake, according to a 2007 report from the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.
• Washington state’s Department of Transportation announced in 2008 a two-year project to retrofit 19 bridges on Interstate 5 to current seismic standards, part of a plan to improve more than 900 bridges to withstand earthquakes.
• Naval Hospital Bremerton completed a seismic retrofit project in 2007 to improve its ability to withstand a large earthquake and provide medical care during and after a crisis, according to the hospital public affairs division.
The spate of recent earthquakes, starting with the magnitude-9.3 Indian Ocean event in 2004, follows a 50-year cycle of earthquake activity, McNutt says. The last cycle, in the 1960s, produced the two other record holders for recorded earthquakes — the magnitude-9.5 quake near Valdivia and a magnitude-9.2 quake in Alaska’s Prince William Sound.
“We know earthquakes are not uniformly distributed in time; they cluster,” McNutt says. “Now suddenly the earthquakes are lighting up again.”
Even with the knowledge that a Big One is inevitable, retrofitting buildings and requiring better building practices is a tough sell, even in parts of the country where quakes are facts of life, says Mark Benthien of the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California.
“Improvements to our building codes have often followed the earthquakes that we have had,” Benthien says. “They are very difficult to pass in other times.”
A report commissioned recently by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the U.S. Geological Survey concluded that many of the deaths in Haiti’s earthquake could have been prevented by using earthquake-resistant designs and construction, as well as improved quality control in concrete and masonry work of affected buildings.
“The massive human losses can be attributed to a lack of attention to earthquake-resistant design and construction practices, and the poor quality of much of the construction,” according to the report. It added: “Indirect evidence suggests that the earthquake did not produce ground motions sufficient to severely damage well-engineered structures.”
Chile shows that earthquake-resistant building codes don’t mean that people will be able to return to buildings, “just that they won’t fall on them,” Christian adds. The unfolding scenario of millions of displaced Chileans would likely occur in the USA as well, after a major earthquake, he says.
“We could build things to completely survive earthquakes,” Christian says. “They would all look like nuclear power plants. And cost as much.”
No predictions are possible for when an earthquake will strike, but the pattern of recent events does worry U.S. planners.
McNutt points to Alaska as the closest copy to Chile on U.S. shores. With a very active fault in the Aleutians and a population hugging the coasts, Anchorage and Juneau are susceptible to similar “subduction” earthquakes, where the Pacific Ocean plate dives under the North American crust.
But it is Puget Sound, with its population and potential to funnel in a tsunami, which is being watched closely.
“Seattle is another area of concern,” McNutt says.
Off Washington state’s coast, large earthquakes have struck every 500 years or so, with the 1700 quake the last major one. The resulting tsunami tore cedar trees from the ground along Puget Sound and was written about in Japan. The Juan de Fuca plate moves about 40 feet in a century, which means about 120 feet worth of energy is coiled up in the fault now, says Brian Atwater, a U.S. Geological Survey expert on historical tsunamis.
“That gives you about a one in 10 chance of (another large quake) across the next 50 years,” he says. “That’s enough for society to make some serious decisions about how we build schools and hospitals.”
via http://www.usatoday.com/
Haiti Earthquake
Republic of Haiti is a Creole- and French-speaking Caribbean country, highest point of the country is Pic la Selle, at 2,680 metres (8,793 ft). The total area of Haiti is 27,750 square kilometres (10,714 sq mi) and its capital is Port-au-Prince.
As you know Tuesday’s the 7.0-magnitude quake left a landscape of collapsed buildings — hospitals, schools, churches, ramshackle homes, even the gleaming national palace — the rubble sending up a white cloud that shrouded the entire capital.
Friday in Rosarno
ROSARNO, Italy — Hundreds of migrant workers, most of them Africans, went on a rampage Friday in a southern Italian town in a second day of rioting, with authorities reporting at least 37 wounded, including 18 police officers and five migrants.
Violence ebbed and flared throughout Friday in Rosarno, a town near the western coast of Calabria in the “toe” of the Italian peninsula. The clashes in the volatile area had begun a day earlier, when two migrants were wounded by pellet fire, said a top police official, Renato Cortese, in the regional capital.
Police reinforcements were being sent in the next hours, likely during the night, with the exact number still being decided, the Interior Ministry said.
Friday evening, another two migrants were wounded in the feet and legs by pellet fire, and three more were seriously injured when they were beaten with metal rods, police and hospital officials said.
The two migrants shot Friday were in the hamlet of Laureana di Borrello, 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Rosarno, said Cortese. There was no information about the attacker.
Officials at Santa Maria degli Ungheresi Hospital in the nearby town of Polistena said one of the migrants beaten by metal rods had surgery for a kidney injury and another was treated for an eye socket injury, and the third wounded in the attack was taken to another hospital for brain surgery.
The rioting began after Thursday’s shooting, in which two men – one from Nigeria, the other from Togo – were lightly injured. The foreigners angrily blamed that shooting on racism, and groups of protesters stoned police, attacked residents and smashed shop windows and cars.
Friday, angry migrants, mostly from African nations, some armed with metal bars or wooden sticks, scuffled with police and residents in the streets of Rosarno.
Chronology of collapse – the forecast for 2010
This prognosis of world economic for 2010 I found on sourse MM News. . So you can read the complete article in German here www.mmnews.de/. Frankly saying I cant agree with the opinion of anonymous author that the situation is so awful but would like to share with you with one of the various scenarios of the end of this world.There is certain reasons there.
Well, Sunday, 10. January 2010
It is always difficult to predict economic and political situation, especially now, when being broken up the ruling political and economic “elite” is still printing press trying to keep the present situation as long as possible.
Author: anonym
It is still impossible to say: “The game is finished!” However, I would give an approximate forecast chronology of economic and political events which might happen in 2010 without any claim to punctuality and completeness.
I understand that this chronology of evets 2010 is rather an approximate index of the way we are going to.
I. Prologue
2006 – Financial crisis
Autumn 2008 – Throwing on the real economy
October 2008 – Recession turns into depression
Trillion-dollar program to rescue banks
Autumn 2008 – Deflation of all “financial assets” ( “financial assets”) (Eg property, stocks, etc..) then collapse in tax revenues in Germany
State land and communes need take 144 billion new loans in 2010
II. The beginning of the crisis
Beginning of 2010 – mass layoffs, a shorter working week “(=” delay in the end “and the first step to lay-offs)
1. wave of dismissals: industry (long-term-) investment goods, automotive industry
2. wave of dismissals: suppliers, construction of buildings after konyukturnyh programs.
From March / April 2010 – Possibility the failure of banks worldwide.
In Germany: Deutsche Bank, HRE, Landesbanken
From June / July 2010 3. – rising wave of dismissals: consumer goods, trade, banks and insurance
Subsidence consumption
Since the beginning of 2010 / early summer 2010 (April – June 2010) – Official U.S. bankruptcy and / or collapse of the Euro-currency? As a result Germany comes out from the euro area, to issue of new money in the former Europian contries.
4. wave of job cuts: the state retains only the most necessary personnel – military, police, the judicial system.
Unemployment rate: 50 – 60%
Burn foreign dollar assets
=de facto expropriation of creditors, the U.S. around the world
Hyperinflation in the U.S.
Monetary reform in the United States:
1.000 to 10.000 of the old $ 1 new = $ (gold dollar?)
(partly) the collapse of cashless payment systems. Restrictions / ban on cash withdrawals.
Destruction globalization
(container ships would not get more “credit letters” – “letters of credit)
From July – August 2010 The first interruption to the provision of goods.
Tourism collapsing minimum to 50%
III. Aggravation
August – October 2010 – Beginning of hyperinflation in Europe, the European Central Bank includes the machine.
Germany must pay 400 billion of old debts.
Since February 2009 U.S. it was printed 3 – 5 trillion. to cover the budget deficit, Europe is about 3.000 billion
Summer 2010, at the latest June – August 2010 The collapse of the market debt securities Germany
IV. Hyperinflation
From April – May 2010 The significant increase in prices for food and consumer goods, (+ 20%) Þ impairment konyukturnye money seep into the real economy.
Since the autumn of 2010
(September – October 2010) Prices are rising by 50% per month
Start World of hyperinflation.
Autumn 2010 — Summer 2012 Global hyperinflation, accompanied by a system of unsecured interim rates.
Autumn 2009 / 2010 – Last relatively good harvests? World drought reduces crop yields worldwide by 50%? There comes, at least in part, the collapse of mechanized agriculture, as well as fuel, fertilizers and spare parts difficult to obtain, the peasants have a lot of debt.
Summer – Fall 2010 Temporary stop oil and gas. Perhaps the war between the Arab and the Israeli army. Partial victory for the Arabs because Israel has no support for the U.S. and Germany. Reduce consumption of oil and gas.
Late Fall 2010
(October – November 2010) The resumption of oil and gas supplies in exchange for food, machinery, equipment, and so on. Payment in precious metals.
Late August / Fall 2010 End manipulated financial circles in the U.S. prices for precious metals. The collapse of the U.S. bond market, the yield of the dollar and paper assets. Stock market crash (Dow Jones at 500 – 1000?)
1 ounce of gold is worth at least until the summer of 2010 $ 2,500, then at least $ 10,000
1 ounce of silver around $ 50, then to $ 1,000
(price of gold rises to five times higher than the level of food, silver – about 25-30 times!
V. Phase chaos
Autumn 2010 Early elections in many countries, national parties are losing voters, the extremists would take at least a third of parliaments.
At the latest since October 2010 Serious shortages of food, fuel, energy. Hungry riots. Prerevolutionary state.
Announcement of an emergency. Economic activity is reduced by 50%.
October – December 2010 “Sad” winter 2010/2011: Hyperinflation.
At 98% People savings dissolved in air. Nischanie People masses.
Mass unemployment, hunger, impoverishment.
Winter 2010 Mainly the “right” of revolution in Europe. There are new political structures. Round tables (public discussion).
With 2012 Reborn whether Monarchy, eg. The Habsburgs in Central Europe?
Concluding remarks
Important: due to attempts to save the system and manipulated as for example. printing money, possibly further extension of the existing system for a period of 6 to 12 months. In accordance with the specified time will be to move forward.
In the case of acceleration processes (due to the seriousness of the situation) all dates are moved forward (eg three months).
My assumptions are based on available to me by December 2009 data. In no case do not claim to accurate prediction of events in 2010! Yet I believe that the events described and the timing could about so look. As we approach these events and new information will be released update.
War, as for example. mentioned in the script Irlmayera (Irlmaier–Szenario), Most likely will not, because the decline, destruction, and the greatest pre-war riots in the history of the crisis will be so enormous that everything necessary for war, military, economic and logistical structures will be demolished.
via http://www.mmnews.de/
To Events in Iran
Today, the day of remembrance of Imam Hussein (Ashura) has been market with mass demonstrations of supporters of political opposition in Tehran and other cities of Iran. Conflinc escalated into bloody clashes with the police. Police kept demonstrators back using gas and firearm. “Three people were killed and two wounded when police opened fire”, – Reuters reported on Sunday. Totally, according to reports from different sources, from four to eight people were killed , including the nephew of the opposition leader, Mir-Hossein Mousavi.. Ali Mousavi was shot in the square Inhelab and died after he was taken to hospital. You can find online a lot of awful pictures illustrating the dramatic events that taking place in Iran right now then I don’t need to put it here.
Well, is it another Iranian revolution? If so I have to note that, as you see, Ahmadinejad has got the opposition which is really quite strong. You like it or not but it mean only one thing – Iranian dictator is still brawny fellow.
The world-wide most important events of 2008-2009?
How do you think? The most thrilled. Let’s try to recall. It’s funny but first what it occurred to me is many terrible things that happened last year – air planes crashes, changing for the worse climate and environment, spreeing H1N1, still lasting economical recession finally. Frankly saying I would not like to put it in my list. Was something good?
1. Barack Obama is inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States
2. Iranian election
3. Gay marriage
4. MJ death
5. Olympic Games 2009
What else…. Just don’t know, I have to think. Any ideas?
Attack on Silvio Berlusconi
Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has spent the night in a hospital after being attacked at a rally in Milan Sunday. His spokesman reports he is tired and aching, and doctors are advising that he rest
e was admitted to hospital on Sunday with broken teeth, a fractured nose and a scarred face after a man with a history of mental problems threw a statuette of Milan cathedral at him as he signed autographs after a political rally.
A medical bulletin said on Monday there were no big worries about Berlusconi’s condition but he would stay in hospital at least until Tuesday because he was complaining about sharp pains in the head and face and had lost about a liter of blood.
His doctor, Alberto Zangrillo, said on state television Berlusconi would not return to work for 10 days.
Some commentators said the attack would help Berlusconi, whose high ratings have been hit by accusations of corruption and sex scandals. They said a “sympathy factor” was likely to boost his popularity, and that the attack would strengthen his position in his sometimes fractious center-right coalition.
“I expect his ratings to go up in the eyes of public opinion and this will also make it harder for anyone in the center-right to aspire to take his place anytime soon,” leading national political commentator Massimo Franco told Reuters.
Images of Berlusconi’s bloodied and bruised face were shown on television around the world and on the front pages of all Italian newspapers, but the headlines and comments went well beyond the injuries.
“A Time of Hatred” was the headline used by La Nazione newspaper of Florence. The word “hate” was used in many headlines and commentators as Italy searched its soul over what happened to its controversial and divisive premier.
Nobel Prize 2009
German author Herta Muller has won the 2009 Nobel Prize in Literature, the Swedish Academy announced Thursday.
The Academy cited Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clezio as “who, with the concentration of poetry and the frankness of prose, depicts the landscape of the dispossessed.”
This was the fourth of the prestigious Nobel Prizes handed out this year, with awards in chemistry, physics and medicine made in the past three days.
A man reads the latest book “Atemschaukel” of German writer Herta Mueller in a Berlin book shop, October 8, 2009. Mueller, a Romanian-born writer who produced tales of the disenfranchised and fought for free speech, won the 2009 Nobel prize for literature on Thursday.
The Nobel Prizes have been awarded annually since 1901 to those who ” conferred the greatest benefit on mankind during the preceding year.”
The annual Nobel Prizes are usually announced in October and are handed out on Dec. 10, the anniversary of the 1896 death of Alfred Nobel, a Swedish industrialist and the inventor of dynamite.
Each prize consists of a medal, a personal diploma and a cash award of 10 million Swedish kronor (1.4 million U.S. dollars).
German writer Herta Mueller arrives for a news conference in Berlin, Germany, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009. Herta Mueller, a little-known Romanian-born author who was persecuted for her critical depictions of life behind the Iron Curtain, won the 2009 Nobel Prize in literature Thursday in an award seen as a nod to the 20th anniversary of communism’s collapse.
United Nation Events
General Secretary of Inited Nation Ban Ki-moon challenged world leaders on Wednesday to cleanse the globe of nuclear weapons, tackle the threat of catastrohic climate change and combat growing poverty from the global financial crisis, warning presidents, prime ministers and diplomats from the U.N.’s 192 member states that “no nation, large or small, can violate the human rights of its citizens with impunity.”
He called for greater efforts to achieve peace in Darfur and Somalia. He urged a revival of negotiations to achieve a Mideast peace with Israel and Palestine live side-by-side in peace. And he pledged to see the Afghans “through their long night” and stand as well with the people of Pakistan.
“Amid many crises — food, energy, recession and pandemic flu, hitting all at once — the world looks to us for answers,” Ban said in the the opening address to the General Assembly’s 64th ministerial session.
“If ever there were a time to act in a spirit of renewed multilateralism, a moment to create a United Nations of genuine collective action, it is now.”
A day after about 100 heads of state and government, in the largest-ever summit on global warming, exchanged views on how to reach a new global accord to combat climate change, Ban again exhorted the leaders to “rise to the greatest challenge we face as a human family.”
“This year I have traveled from the ice rim of the Arctic to the steppes of Mongolia,” Ban said. “I have seen, first-hand, the effects of climate change on our planet and its people.”
General Assembly President Ali Treki, of Libya, echoed the need for international unity.
“The international community has learned from experience that transnational threats and the multiple crises facing the world today can only be addressed through responsible international cooperation,” he told the audience in the assembly chamber that included about 120 world leaders.
